Did the Education Next Reader Poll Predict the Race to the Top Winners?



By 08/27/2010

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We did a bit better than chance, it seems.

There were 19 finalists, 10 winners.  So chances of any of the finalists winning were a bit better than a bet on a black square at the roulette wheel, as that bet has a tad bit less than 50-50 chance.  In the RttT gamble,  the odds for the finalists  were  a bit better than 50-50.

So if our poll picked did no better than picking winners by chance, the top eleven picks should have included only  6 of the 10 winners.   As it turns out, we got 7 correct.  In other words, if the odds-makers in Las Vegas were giving even money across the board, you could have won some G-notes had you used the Ednext poll to pick the winners.

Further, according to Education Next editor, Frederick Hess, two of the poll’s top 11, Colorado and Louisiana, “should” have won, which after all was the question folks were asked to answer.

Here are the results for the top eleven (share of votes won by a given state in parentheses):

Rhode Island (41.42)
Louisiana (5.72)
Kentucky (5.45)
District of Columbia (5.18)
Florida (5.18)
Massachusetts (4.9)
California (3.81)
New York (3.81)
Colorado (3.54)
North Carolina (3.00)
Georgia (2.72)




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