Last week, I shared what I thought a blue wave in November might mean for education, addressing the questions I hear most frequently from journalists and education policy insiders. The column provoked a surprising torrent of reader mail that included several new questions to consider.

With early voting already underway and the poll numbers steadily worsening for Republicans, the base case currently has Democrats taking the House, the Senate, and key gubernatorial races. That makes these queries especially timely. I thought it worth addressing a few that touched on recurring themes.

As I read your analysis, it didn’t sound like a lot was really at stake when it comes to education. You noted that a Dem win would slow executive actions but wouldn’t do much to limit school choice or reverse Trump policies. Practically speaking, how much will the election results really matter for federal education policy?

This is a terrific question asked by several readers. Broadly speaking, a lot less is at stake than meets the eye. Keep in mind that there haven’t really been any cuts to Title I, Pell, IDEA, or the school lunch program. Right now, education spending looks a lot like it did under Biden, and a Democratic win just won’t have much impact on outlays. The big changes have been Congress’s reforms to higher ed accountability and lending, the Trump administration’s executive actions, and their push to dismantle the Department of Education. Even if Democrats win huge, Team Trump’s policies on DEI, gender identity, immigration, and accreditation will remain (albeit with more congressional oversight). Democrats could seek to compel the administration to reverse staffing cuts at ED or unwind the interagency agreements that shifted units to other agencies, but they’ll lack the votes to overcome a Trump veto. Moreover, Democrats aren’t of one mind on the big education provisions in OBBBA (like higher ed accountability and the Federal Scholarship Tax Credit), meaning they’re unlikely to broach those in a serious way. If the Democrats take the White House in 2028, it’ll be a different story. But, for now, even an excellent night for Democrats would have limited implications for federal education policy.

You mentioned that the Democratic Socialists are for free pre-K, free college, and loan forgiveness. What are the odds that those policy proposals become an important part of the Democratic agenda after the election?

There are a couple different answers. In blue states, a good night for DSA candidates probably energizes the push to expand free pre-K or promote free college. But the rise of the DSA likely won’t change the calculus in purple or red states. In fact, if pre-K or free college get coded as “DSA” in those states, it could increase resistance among conservative media outlets and Republicans. In Washington, Democrats will likely embrace pre-K as part of an “affordability” agenda (meanwhile, loan forgiveness is probably tainted by Biden’s failed push). While you might expect Trump to be implacably opposed, he’s shown that he’s unbothered by deficit spending, likes cutting deals, and loves putting his name on things. So, you can see how pre-K could move as part of a package. But Democrats will be reluctant to hand Trump wins, the bond market is already hyper-stressed about our mountainous debt, and Democrats have a slew of competing priorities. So, I’d bet against federal action before 2029.

How much pressure on higher ed would a Democratic win really alleviate? It might give institutions short-term relief, but they’d still face demographic pressures, declining college participation among young men, and the fundamental question of what a college education prepares students to do.

Yup, you’re right to flag the long- versus short-term pressures. A big Democratic win would bring some sighs of relief on campus (as well as some quiet grumbling from presidents who’ve used the Trump bogeyman as an excuse to tackle festering problems). But campus officialdom shouldn’t get too comfortable. The problems in higher ed stretch far beyond this election’s shadow. For one thing, plenty of Dems are concerned about college cost and completion. They won’t be eager to just reopen higher ed’s federal money spigot. More broadly, there’s going to be a reckoning for private colleges with high operating costs and modest endowments. A shrinking applicant pool and doubts about the value of a degrees in an AI world make it harder to find full-freight students. Similar doubts are hitting public access institutions which rely on tuition and state aid. Oh, and OBBBA’s lending and accountability provisions are poised to squeeze high-priced degrees and low-quality programs. All that will remain true, no matter what happens next month.

I’m not sure where you come out on a potential blue wave. You’ve cheered the Trump administration’s policies on higher ed, school choice, and abolishing the Department of Education. But you’ve also criticized a lot of what they’ve done, as with DOGE or the “College Compact,” and you’ve written several columns brutally satirizing President Trump. Do you think a Democratic win would be good or bad?

Okay, here’s how I see it. I admire most of what the Trump administration has been doing on education. It deserves kudos for tackling antisemitism, restoring the statutory intent of Title IX, reforming higher ed accreditation, shrinking the education bureaucracy, fixing FAFSA, taking on toxic DEI, and more. I heartily approve of the higher ed reforms that Congress enacted in the OBBBA. But much of this crucial work has been tainted by this White House’s blatant disregard for democratic norms and institutions. I slammed Biden for politicizing civil rights enforcement and trampling the law in pursuit of its education agenda; I can’t see why I’d be okay with Trump embracing those precedents. I’d have been appalled if Biden’s cabinet secretaries had been required to bend the knee in North Korea-style meetings, hang six-story banners of martyred political allies on the Department of Ed, partner only with ideological allies to celebrate the nation’s 250th, or support the president’s extortionate demands of universities. Well, I feel the same about seeing it done by Team Trump. While I find Trump’s appointees to the Department of Ed to be generally terrific, I fear their good work has been marred by the White House’s venality, ineptitude, and eagerness to set awful precedents (in the past few weeks, these included the $5,000 reelection bribes, taxpayer-funded Trump infomercials, and latest assault on the press). Meanwhile, the Republican Congress has sat on its hands. In the end, my support for Team Trump’s education agenda only goes so far. In an age when you’re supposed to pick a tribe, this leaves me in a tough spot—if one familiar to us Reagan conservatives, who’ve spent the past decade getting pilloried as MAGA racists by the left and RINO wimps by the right. While I’m not eager to see Democrats win, I feel like Republicans have been begging the voters for a firm reproach. And I can’t say I’d be sad to see them get it.

Frederick Hess is an executive editor of Education Next and the author of the blog “Old School with Rick Hess.”